What We've Learned

June 22, 2010

There are many things that are perfectly viable reason for not updating a website for six weeks, and there are also many things that are not.  Let’s start with five excuses that, as Marisa Tomei would say, “hold waw-tah”:

1)        “I’m expecting a child”
2)        “I’m moving”
3)        “I’ve been training for and/or participating in the Amazing Race”
4)        “I’ve been in the hospital”
5)        “My computer stopped working”

Now, the excuses which are just lame:

1)        “I forgot”
2)        “I’m training for a reality show that is NOT the Amazing Race”
3)        “I’ve been focusing on my real job”
4)        “Anything excuse involving a pet”
5)        “I got married”

So let’s just get this over with.  My wife and I are having a baby and we bought a house, so stop holding my damn feet to the fire and let’s get back to fantasy baseball!  Excuses over!

Six weeks is an eternity in baseball, so let’s go over what we’ve learned since I last updated this abomination of a website.  In getting into the World Cup spirit, this is going to be a list of 32 items separated into eight groups – just go with it:

Group A – The Rookies

1)        Stephen Strasburg is the second coming of whatever you believe in.  If it’s Jesus, great.  If it’s unicorns, fine.  Whatever you believe to be the symbol of spirituality or enlightenment, Strasburg is that entity personified.
2)        Mike Stanton swings and misses a lot.  So much so that as of writing this, he’s got a .233 average which is completely unsustainable based on his .391 BABIP.  Yea, that’s correct.
3)        Starlin Castro is going to be a good player.  Just not yet.  A singles hitter at the bottom of a punchless lineup, no thank you.  Buy him in keeper leagues where his value has been deflated.
4)        Carlos Santana is the real deal.  7 walks and 3 K’s in his first 35 plate appearances means he’s not intimidated by MLB pitching.  You definitely want him over fellow catching rookie Buster Posey.

Group B – The Resurrected

1)        Alex Rios will keep this up, folks.  He’s now a legit top-20 player.
2)        The Texas OF/DH combo of Josh Hamilton and Vlad Guerrero is absolutely raking.  You know the type of injury risk that comes with this territory, but as the Texas sun heats up, bats don’t cool off.
3)        David Wright’s power.  Yes he can hit 30 HR’s, as I told you at the beginning of the season.
4)        Francisco Liriano is taking a dagger straight to the heart of the owners who believed in him last season by being completely dominant this season.  I am one of those owners.  

Group C – The Wheels are Coming Off

1)        A.J. Burnett is not getting enough K’s to warrant being this inconsistent.  Make him someone else’s problem, but wait until he has a good start first.
2)        James Shields is struggling as of late too, but he’s got the stones to back it up.  A 4.50 ERA and 3.51 xFIP, along with a .345 BABIPa, mean buy low on him while you can.
3)        Alfonso Soriano has had an awful June (and his BA has dipped from around .320 to .270), but his rate stats are almost identical to his first two months.  He won’t get his average back up to .300, but he’s not falling off a cliff.
4)        Michael Bourn, however, is falling off a cliff.  I know he’s got the steals, but if you’re in a non-deep H2H league, he needs to be dropped.

Group D – Closers

1)        Brad Lidge is a top-10 closer the rest of the way.  I know he makes people nervous, but if he didn’t, he’d be top-5.
2)        Same goes for Bobby Jenks.  His ERA is down to 4.39, as compared to his xFIP of 2.70 - and on top of that, he’s got a 13/1 K-BB ratio in 9 2/3 June innings.
3)        Sell on Matt Lindstrom, if you can.  His stats still look good, but his 4.3% HR/FB ratio won’t stay that low.  Plus, Brandon Lyon is dealing in the 8th and is still making closer money…
4)        In the obvious department, Mariano Rivera is awesome.  So awesome in fact that he hasn’t given up a hit since June 1st.  That was three weeks ago.  I mean, he can’t sustain his .144 BABIP, but who cares?  The guy’s a marvel.

Group E – Guys who are injured that I want

1)        Edinson Volquez
2)        Brett Anderson
3)        Coco Crisp
4)        Jorge De La Rosa

Group F – Guys who are injured that I do NOT want

1)        Brandon Webb
2)        Travis Snider
3)        Brad Penny
4)        Mark Derosa

Group G – For deeper leagues

1)        Don’t sleep on Tommy Hunter.  He certainly won’t maintain a 2.31 ERA, but you could do much worse in a 12 or 14 team league.  Hunter is bound to have some soft matchups, a.k.a. Oakland and Seattle, down the stretch and isn’t walking many guys (6 BB in 4 starts).
2)        Russell Branyan has been heating up a bit as of late, hitting .279 with 4 HR’s so far in June.  That’s a 30-HR pace, and he’s definitely less widely owned than he should be.
3)        Rick Porcello has had a brutal start to the season for sure, but you only need to look back a few weeks to see what a couple of starts in the minors did to help Max Scherzer.  Porcello will be valuable down the stretch if you can stash him now.
4)        Evan Meek is getting closer to potentially logging some time at closer in Pittsburgh.  Dotel will be on the block, and if they can get anything decent for him, he’ll be moved.  Meek and his 0.68 should then step in quite adequately.

Group H – Lingering Questions

1)        Will Phil Hughes have a soft or hard innings cap?  If the Yanks limit him down the stretch, it could sink fantasy teams relying on him.  If the Yanks push him down the stretch, his value in keeper leagues goes down since his 2011 injury risk will be much higher.
2)        Will Dan Haren really be WORSE in the 2nd half this year?  He’s clearly been unlucky so far – his ERA is more than a point higher than his xFIP and his BABIPa is unsustainably high (.344) – but expecting him to be better as the season goes on, defies all current Dan Haren logic we have.
3)        Will Zack Greinke win 10 games?  He doesn’t look like the same pitcher we saw last year, but he surely doesn’t deserve this horrendous lack of run support.  By the way, his story is one all you Ubaldo Jimenez owners in keeper leagues should heed.
4)        What is the deal with Brennan Boesch?  And yes, that was meant to be said in a very Seinfeld-ian voice.  A man cannot maintain a BABIP of above .380 – look for him to fall back to earth as Austin Jackson has this past month.  There must be something in the water in Detroit which allows these rookies to tempt fate for an extended period of time.

The Morning Shave - May 7, 2010

Today’s Spotlight –

Gordon Beckham is not this bad, he’s really not - but at this point, he’s got to be on your bench.  Actually, hopefully he’s been on your bench for the last week or two.  However, regardless of how frustrated you are with him, you need to stay the course here.  Here’s a quote from Ozzie Guillen after yesterday’s game: “Maybe the first time ever this kid go through this.  He's the golden boy.  He grew up in Little League, he hit .600.  He go to high school, best player, go to college, kick some butt.  He go to the minor leagues, erupted.  First year in the big leagues, kicked some butt.  It's easy to play this game when you're good.  It's tough to play this game when you're down.  He's got all my support."  Beckham has the talent to be Chase Utley-light, and can still do it this season – I still believe he can get to a final line of .270/15/10 with upside in power if he turns it on.  But what we know right now is that his K-rate is a bit out of control compared to last season (24% to 17%) – which in turn is higher than his 13% number in the minors.  But just watching him, you notice that he’s uncomfortable with his swing – and like Ozzie believes, he’ll get through it.  Through this point in the season his ground ball rate is nearly 50% (40% last year) and his infield fly rate is 18% compared to 12% last year.  What does all of this mean?  Well, besides the fact that Fangraphs is awesome, it just means he’s out of sorts.  Keep him on your bench right now, but as soon as you see him get two good games under his belt, put the Golden Boy back in your lineup and enjoy the ride.

Other Daily Notes –

·        Look out, Vlad Guerrero has reappeared on fantasy radars in a big way.  After last night’s 2-HR performance, he’s hitting .340 with 5 HR’s, 23 RBI’s and even 3 SB’s.  Best of all, his K-rate is down from his last few seasons, and he’s close to getting OF eligibility in 5-game leagues.
·        Jeff Niemann had another dominant outing last night (albeit against Seattle), but he’s now sporting an impressive 2.23 ERA and 0.99 WHIP after 6 starts.  Pitching in front of a dominant offense, Niemann should be a reliable starter the rest of the season – even if he doesn’t raise his K/9 rate above about 7.
·        Andre Ethier just continues to prove me wrong, and I don’t like being proved wrong.  I never really took him all that seriously (neither did Billy Beane as he traded him for Milton Bradley), and he's really forced my opinion of him to change against my will.  He’s now up to a .371 average and 10 HR’s on the season and shows no signs of slowing down.  Actually his 11/11 K/BB ratio suggests he’s still improving.  Scary.

Streamers’ Paradise, 5-day Forecast —

May 7, 2010:
1        Mat Latos, San Diego (@ HOU)
2        Chris Volstad, Florida (@ WAS)
3        Kevin Millwood, Baltimore (@ MIN)
Deep        Esmil Rogers, Colorado (@ LAD)
Avoid        Phil Hughes, New York (@ BOS)

May 8, 2010:
1        Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado (@ LAD)
2        Justin Masterson, Cleveland (v DET)
3        Joe Saunders, Los Angeles (@ SEA)
Deep        Todd Wellemeyer, San Francisco (@ NYM)
Avoid        Clay Buchholz, Boston (v NYY)

May 9, 2010:
1        Max Scherzer, Detroit (@ CLE)
2        Scott Feldman, Texas (v KC)
3        Nick Blackburn, Minnesota (v BAL)
Deep        Jason Vargas, Seattle (v LAA)
Avoid        Cole Hamels, Philadelphia (v ATL)

May 10, 2010:
1        Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati (@ PIT)
2        John Maine, New York (v WAS)
3        Doug Davis, Milwaukee (v ATL)
Deep        Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh (v CIN)
Avoid        Joel Piniero, Los Angeles (v TB)

May 11, 2010:
1        Scott Olsen, Washington (@ NYM)
2        Jonathan Niese, New York (v WAS)
3        Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati (@ PIT)
Deep        David Hernandez, Baltimore (v SEA)
Avoid        Tim Hudson, Atlanta (@ MIL)

Yesterday’s forecast:
1        Matt Harrison, Texas (v KC) – 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 1 K (ND)
2        Carl Pavano, Minnesota (v BAL) – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 8 K (L)
3        Scott Olsen, Washington (v ATL) – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K (ND)
Deep        Dave Bush, Milwaukee (@ LAD) – 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K (ND)
Avoid        Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston (v LAA) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 B (W)

The Bearded Bandwagon—

Here is a list of bandwagons we are on here at Fantasy Beards.  The descriptions show how strongly we feel about them – ranging from “driving!” (a bandwagon we feel super strong about) to “evacuated!” (a bandwagon we jumped off like it was on fire).  Nothing will get erased from this list over the course of the season, so any embarrassing excursions will be there for you to laugh at (and all new bandwagons are starred).

The Good:
James Shields WILL finish in the top-3 of AL Cy Young voting (driving!)
David Wright WILL hit 30+ HR’s (firmly on)
Barry Zito WILL finish the year with an ERA under 3.25 and a WHIP under 1.20 (on)
Daisuke Matsuzaka WILL win 10+ games (on, but getting antsy)
Johnny Cueto WILL end the season as a top-40 pitcher (on, but getting antsy..)

The Bad:
Matt Capps WON’T get 25 saves this season (firmly on)
Carlos Santana WON’T hit double digit HRs this year (firmly on)
Brian Roberts WON’T play in more than 50 games this season (on)

The Ugly:
Javier Vazquez WON’T get his ERA below 5.00 at any point this season (on)

Look Out Below! –

A constantly revolving list of the top 10 most vulnerable closers in baseball, along with the guy we’d handcuff him with:

1) *Manny Corpas, Colorado (Franklin Morales)
2) *Alfredo Simon, Baltimore (Koji Uehara)
3) *Chris Perez, Cleveland (Tony Sipp)
4) Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney)
5) Octavio Dotel (Evan Meek)
6) Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)
7) Neftali Feliz (Frank Francisco)
8) Kevin Gregg (Jason Frasor)
9) Brad Lidge (Danys Baez)
10) Matt Lindstrom (Brandon Lyon)

*Currently an injury replacement

Today’s Matchup to Watch –

Mat Latos vs. Houston’s “offense”

Latos has actually been pretty solid outside of a disaster start in Florida on April 26th – 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP – so a start against Houston looks like a good chance for him to get back on fantasy radar screens.  The Astros have scored the fewest runs in the league (80) and a 600 team OPS, which can only be described as “special”.  If he can get through this start the way he’s supposed to, he’s on his way back to being a guy who you only bench in tough road starts.

The Morning Shave - May 6, 2010

Today’s Spotlight –

Will he or won’t he?  That’s the main question around Barry Zito’s resurgence in 2010.  Will he be the pitcher the Giants thought they were getting when they shelled out WAY too much money for him a few years back?  The two things he’ll need to maintain if he wants to prove the doubters wrong is his K/BB ratio and a low BABIPa.  Right now, he’s got a 2.3 K/BB ratio – and Zito hasn’t had a ratio that high since 2002 (the year he won the AL Cy Young).  He’s also got a .228 BABIPa (which compared to his 5-yr Rolling Average – Luck Police plug! – of .272 has some regression in it); however, he has had multiple seasons with a BABIPa right around .250.  So what am I saying?  I’m buying on Barry Zito.  His ERA won’t stay this low, mostly due to the fact that he’s given up exactly zero HR’s this season and he’s got a very steady career average of about 1 HR/9.  But can he finish the year with a 3.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 160 K’s?  I’m starting to think that he can – and based on where he was drafted this year (ADP was somewhere in the low-300’s), he could be one of the key cogs in a championship team.

Other Daily Notes –

·        Carlos Lee finally hit his first HR last night, and did it in dramatic fashion – making it a walk-off 2-run shot to beat the D-Backs.  He’s hitting .297 over his last 10 games, and more importantly he’s got only 1 K in his last 22 AB’s.  That’s more like the Carlos Lee we know and love.  If his owner’s not a believer, make him a believer in someone you’ve got.
·        Matt Garza continues to dominate, going 8 innings strong against the Mariners only giving up 2 runs and striking out 5.  He improves his record to 5-1 with the win, and although he’s had a relatively weak schedule so far (2 BAL, SEA, KC included), look for him to be a very valuable #2 fantasy starter in 2010.
·        David Wright hit his 7th HR yesterday off Johnny Cueto in Cincinnati (and for those Citi Field haters, only 6 have come on the road – wait, what?).  He’s now on pace for 40 HR’s and 40 SB’s, and although he won’t get there, those who believed and drafted him as a 2nd round pick are feeling pretty good right about now.

Streamers’ Paradise, 5-day Forecast —

May 6, 2010:
1        Matt Harrison, Texas (v KC)
2        Carl Pavano, Minnesota (v BAL)
3        Scott Olsen, Washington (v ATL)
Deep        Dave Bush, Milwaukee (@ LAD)
Avoid        Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston (v LAA)

May 7, 2010:
1        Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit (@ CLE)
2        Chris Volstad, Florida (@ WAS)
3        Kevin Millwood, Baltimore (@ MIN)
Deep        Esmil Rogers, Colorado (@ LAD)
Avoid        Phil Hughes, New York (@ BOS)

May 8, 2010:
1        Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado (@ LAD)
2        Justin Masterson, Cleveland (v DET)
3        Joe Saunders, Los Angeles (@ SEA)
Deep        Todd Wellemeyer, San Francisco (@ NYM)
Avoid        Clay  Buchholz, Boston (v NYY)

May 9, 2010:
1        Max Scherzer, Detroit (@ CLE)
2        Scott Feldman, Texas (v KC)
3        Nick Blackburn, Minnesota (v BAL)
Deep        Jason Vargas, Seattle (v LAA)
Avoid        Cole Hamels, Philadelphia (v ATL)

May 10, 2010:
1        Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati (@ PIT)
2        John Maine, New York (v WAS)
3        Doug Davis, Milwaukee (v ATL)
Deep        Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh (v CIN)
Avoid        Joel Piniero, Los Angeles (v TB)

Yesterday’s forecast:
1        Brandon Morrow, Toronto (@ CLE) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 9 K (ND)
2        Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati (v NYM) – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 8 K (ND)
3        Clayton Richard, San Diego (v COL) – 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 5 K (ND)
Deep        Freddy Garcia, Chicago (v KC) – 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 4 K (W)
Avoid        Brad Penny, St Louis (@ PHI) – 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K (L)

The Bearded Bandwagon—

Here is a list of bandwagons we are on here at Fantasy Beards.  The descriptions show how strongly we feel about them – ranging from “driving!” (a bandwagon we feel super strong about) to “evacuated!” (a bandwagon we jumped off like it was on fire).  Nothing will get erased from this list over the course of the season, so any embarrassing excursions will be there for you to laugh at (and all new bandwagons are starred).

The Good:
James Shields WILL finish in the top-3 of AL Cy Young voting (driving!)
David Wright WILL hit 30+ HR’s (firmly on)
*Barry Zito WILL finish the year with an ERA under 3.25 and a WHIP under 1.20 (on)*
Daisuke Matsuzaka WILL win 10+ games (on)
Johnny Cueto WILL end the season as a top-40 pitcher (on, but getting antsy..)

The Bad:
Matt Capps WON’T get 25 saves this season (firmly on)
Carlos Santana WON’T hit double digit HRs this year (firmly on)
Brian Roberts WON’T play in more than 50 games this season (on)

The Ugly:
Javier Vazquez WON’T get his ERA below 5.00 at any point this season (on)

Look Out Below! –

A constantly revolving list of the top 10 most vulnerable closers in baseball, along with the guy we’d handcuff him with:

1) *Alfredo Simon, Baltimore (Koji Uehara)
2) *Franklin Morales, Colorado (Manny Corpas)
3) *Chris Perez, Cleveland (Tony Sipp)
4) Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney)
5) Neftali Feliz (Frank Francisco)
6) Kevin Gregg (Jason Frasor)
7) Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)
8) Octavio Dotel (Evan Meek)
9) Brad Lidge (Danys Baez)
10) Matt Lindstrom (Brandon Lyon)

*Currently an injury replacement

Today’s Matchup to Watch –

Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Scott Kazmir

Just two years ago, this would have been a great matchup between two top-25 pitchers.  Now, it’s a war of attrition.  This game is much more likely to be a 14-12 debacle than any sort of pitcher’s duel, but it’s definitely worth watching to see if either of these pitchers will end up back on fantasy radars.  Kazmir has historically had success in Fenway – I can’t find his career numbers there, but since 2007, he’s 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 39 K’s in 40 IP there.  Can either of them recapture their old magic?  It’s certainly worth checking out to see – worst comes to worst, LASER SHOW!

The Luck Police

May 5, 2010
By Bret Sayre

Ladies and gentlemen, the story you’re about to hear is true; however, the names have not been changed to protect the lucky.  Within this column we’ll take a weekly look at BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for hitters and BABIPa (batting average on balls in play against) for pitchers to determine how much regression to the mean you can expect for different guys.  The process we use here at Fantasy Beards is a comparison between current stats and 5-year rolling stats (or career stats if they’ve been in the show for less than 5 years); since we firmly believe that everyone regressed to different statistical means.  We’ll then point out some guys who we think are interesting.  This disclaimer will self-destruct in 5, 4, 3..

Let’s start with the hitters.  Here are your Top-20 Future Risers:






















The most interesting name on this list?  Paul Konerko.  The first thought with Konerko is that he’s a sell-high – he was a popular 1B sleeper in the pre-season, but right now leads the majors in HR’s with 12.  The crazy thing though, is that his peripheral stats are off-the-charts compared to what we’ve grown to expect from him.  His K/BB rate is 10/19 and he has NEVER had more walks than strikeouts in a single season – and the improvement is in both areas.  His current K-rate of 11% would be tied for the lowest of his career (oddly with 2003, his worst season last decade) and his current BB-rate of 17% would shatter his career high of 13% (in 2008).  This means, we’re potentially looking at a career year for Konerko in 2010 – and considering he’s had two years of .275/40/100, that’s saying a lot.

Most of the guys we talked about last week are still on this list and still make pretty good buy-lows.  Seth Smith won’t have too much time left for his luck to turn around as Brad Hawpe will be back soon, but he’s certainly capable of it.  The Cubs will be awfully happy when Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee start getting a little luckier, and fantasy owners should not have any concerns here.  I’m starting to get a little concerned about Chris Coghlan though, and not because I don’t expect his luck to turn around.  The craziest stat of the 2010 season so far has to be the fact that Coghlan has ZERO extra base hits through 88 AB’s this season – this compared to the 46 XBH he had in just over 500 AB’s last season.  

Now let’s move onto the guys who, for the most part, are hotter than:






















There are definitely a few guys on here who I think have a more sustainable level of BABIP improvement than others.  The three that jump out to me on this list are Colby Rasmus, Brett Gardner and Elvis Andrus.  Colby Rasmus should not be a career .278 BABIP guy (and will not be when all is said and done), and while he does have some regression ahead of him, there’s no reason he can’t be a .280 hitter instead of a .250 one.  Brett Gardner is getting pitches to hit and taking advantage of his speed – someone as fast as him should have BABIP over .320 (for example, you’ll see Michael Bourn has a .327 5-yr BABIP) and could maintain a .300 batting average.  Additionally, he’s well on-pace for the lowest K-rate of his career.  All of the same things apply for Andrus – except that he’s got a much higher upside than Gardner does.

Outside of that, you’re looking at a lot of solid short-term options in Kearns, Rosales, Theriot and Schierholtz who will all cool off shortly and some guys who potentially could have some actual improvement (but I don’t believe in yet) like Chris Young and Franklin Gutierrez.  Longoria, Werth and Morneau will regress but are still awesome.  Just don’t be the guy chasing Pudge or Andy LaRoche – neither of those things will end well..

Now we’ll move onto pitchers – and since these numbers REALLY should be taken with a grain of salt since most starters have picked up 4 starts so far this year, I’m not even going to worry about the color commentary.  We’ll save that for when it’s more meaningful.

Top 20 Future Risers:






















Top 20 Future Fallers:

The Morning Shave - May 5, 2010

Today’s Spotlight –

It’s easy to dream on the kind of numbers Evan Longoria would put up if he were a .320 or .330 hitter, let alone was able to maintain the .360+ average that he’s had so far this season.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like it’s in the cards for him unless he improves his K-rate.  Longoria will always be a guy who makes a lot of hard contact and a generally streaky hitter, so while his batting average is great right now, it’s not being balanced out by changes in his peripherals.  What is promising is that he’s got 4 steals on the season already (his previous career high was 9 last year).  If Longoria can steal 20 bases, he’s A-Rod without the aging/injury risk and likely a top-5 pick next year.

Other Daily Notes –

·        Mike Aviles went 3-for-5 with a HR last night batting 7th for the Royals.  If he’s playing most days, he’s worth grabbing in AL-only leagues immediately and worth monitoring in deep mixed leagues.
·        Clayton Kershaw got bombed last night giving up 7 runs while only collecting 4 outs.  He usually doesn’t have a problem missing bats, but when he was hit last night, he was hit hard.  Makes you wonder if there may be injury trouble ahead.
·        Jason Heyward went 2-for-2 with a HR and 2 walks against the Nationals.  He’s quietly raised his average back up to .289.  Since April 24th, he’s got 4 HR’s, 8 RBI’s and a .370 AVG – but most importantly, he’s got a 4/6 K/BB ratio in that span (compared to 20/10 up to that point).

Streamers’ Paradise, 5-day Forecast —

May 5, 2010:
1        Brandon Morrow, Toronto (@ CLE)
2        Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati (v NYM)
3        Clayton Richard, San Diego (v COL)
Deep        Freddy Garcia, Chicago (v KC)
Avoid        Brad Penny, St Louis (@ PHI)

May 6, 2010:
1        Matt Harrison, Texas (v KC)
2        Carl Pavano, Minnesota (v BAL)
3        Scott Olsen, Washington (v ATL)
Deep        Dave Bush, Milwaukee (@ LAD)
Avoid        Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston (v LAA)

May 7, 2010:
1        Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit (@ CLE)
2        Chris Volstad, Florida (@ WAS)
3        Kevin Millwood, Baltimore (@ MIN)
Deep        Esmil Rogers, Colorado (@ LAD)
Avoid        Phil Hughes, New York (@ BOS)

May 8, 2010:
1        Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado (@ LAD)
2        Justin Masterson, Cleveland (v DET)
3        Joe Saunders, Los Angeles (@ SEA)
Deep        Todd Wellemeyer, San Francisco (@ NYM)
Avoid        Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta (@ PHI)

May 9, 2010:
1        Max Scherzer, Detroit (@ CLE)
2        Scott Feldman, Texas (v KC)
3        Nick Blackburn, Minnesota (v BAL)
Deep        Jason Vargas, Seattle (v LAA)
Avoid        Cole Hamels, Philadelphia (v ATL)

The Bearded Bandwagon—

Here is a list of bandwagons we are on here at Fantasy Beards.  The descriptions show how strongly we feel about them – ranging from “driving!” (a bandwagon we feel super strong about) to “evacuated!” (a bandwagon we jumped off like it was on fire).  Nothing will get erased from this list over the course of the season, so any embarrassing excursions will be there for you to laugh at.

The Good:
James Shields WILL finish in the top-3 of AL Cy Young voting (driving!)
David Wright WILL hit 30+ HR’s (firmly on)
Daisuke Matsuzaka WILL win 10+ games (on)
Johnny Cueto WILL end the season as a top-40 pitcher (on, but getting antsy..)

The Bad:
Matt Capps WON’T get 25 saves this season (firmly on)
Carlos Santana WON’T hit double digit HRs this year (firmly on)
Brian Roberts WON’T play in more than 50 games this season (on)

The Ugly:
Javier Vazquez WON’T get his ERA below 5.00 at any point this season (on)

Look Out Below! –

A constantly revolving list of the top 10 most vulnerable closers in baseball, along with the guy we’d handcuff him with:

1) *Alfredo Simon, Baltimore (Koji Uehara)
2) *Franklin Morales, Colorado (Manny Corpas)
3) *Chris Perez, Cleveland (Tony Sipp)
4) Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney)
5) Neftali Feliz (Frank Francisco)
6) Kevin Gregg (Jason Frasor)
7) Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)
8) Octavio Dotel (Evan Meek)
9) Brad Lidge (Danys Baez)
10) Matt Lindstrom (Brandon Lyon)

*Currently an injury replacement

Today’s Matchup to Watch –

Rick Porcello vs. the Minnesota Twins offense  

The Twins have played well and Porcello has struggled badly, but the law of averages says that Porcello will turn around his horrific BABIPa (.415 this season versus .287 from last season).  That is, unless he’s showing some side effects from his 45-inning jump from 2008 to 2009, according to the Verducci Effect (after the SI writer who first detailed this).  The Verducci Effect surmises that anything larger than a 30 inning jump from year-to-year for a pitcher 25 years old or under will put that pitcher at serious risk for injury.  Porcello is not even 22 years old, so only time will tell on this one.

Under the Bright Lights

May 3, 2010

By Bret Sayre

In a column usually filled with such optimism, it’s occasionally worth wondering – what happens when a “can’t miss” prospect misses?  It usually looks a lot like what’s happening to the 2nd overall pick in the 2005 draft, Kansas City third baseman Alex Gordon.  Two points in Gordon’s defense first.  First of all, some of his struggles can be traced back to some unfortunate injuries he’s had over the past three seasons or so.  In 2008 it was a torn quadriceps muscle, then in 2009 it was a torn labrum in his hip and finally in 2010 he suffered a broken thumb in spring training.  Second of all, it’s not his fault that he was the first of three 3B prospects taken in the first 5 picks of that draft. Who were the two guys taken at #4 and $5, you ask?  Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Braun.  Again, not Gordon’s fault.

So what are we left with?  A career batting average under .250 and a grand total of 38 HRs and 142 RBIs in 3+ seasons.  And for you sabermetrically-inclined readers, that’s a 744 OPS with a 25% K-rate and a career WAR (wins over replacement) of a measly 4.9.  This all from a guy who absolutely destroyed at AA-Omaha in 2006 with a .325/.427/.588, 29 HRs and 22 SBs.  He was supposed to be a fantasy monster, but instead he turned into the guy the Royals picked instead of Ryan Braun.  Or Ryan Zimmerman.  Or Troy Tulowitski (7th overall).  Or Andrew McCutchen (11th overall).

And today, Gordon was optioned to Triple-A since he had already lost his job to Alberto Callaspo, making room for the first guy on our list this week:

Mike Aviles – SS – Kansas City

Aviles was not summoned for a starting role, but he’ll have a chance to prove that his arm has come back well enough from Tommy John surgery last year in order to play shortstop.  This is important because the Royals continue to trot the human punching bag known as Yuniesky Betancourt out there every day.  How bad is Betancourt?  So bad that people think he’s off to a good start to the season for him, and he’s got a 644 OPS.  Meanwhile, Aviles posted hit .325 in 2008 with 10 HRs in 417 AB’s.  Suffice to say, it’s a situation worth watching if you’re weak at SS.

Redraft:  D+   Keeper:  D

Wilson Ramos – C – Minnesota

Clearly the Twins are set at the catcher position for this year and many years to come, but few other teams can boast a catching prospect as solid as Ramos.  What the Twins do with him is an entirely different story altogether.  Ramos was called up this week to play while Mauer recovers from a heel injury which may or may not force him to the DL, and collected 4 hits in his major-league debut last night (the first Twin to do that since some guy named Kirby Puckett).  While he’ll never be the best fantasy option around, Ramos did hit .317 for AA-New Britain in 2009 with 4 HRs.  He’s a decent stopgap option in AL-only leagues right now, but if the Twins end up trading him – which is the hot rumor – he could walk right into a starting job and produce.

Redraft: D   Keeper: C+

Jhoulys Chacin – SP – Colorado

Chacin certainly had the most electrifying debut of this entire group (Ramos’s 4-hit performance included) as he shutout the Giants for 7 innings, only allowing one hit and striking out 7.  Chacin has been among the Rockies’ top prospects over the last few years, though he’s thrown only about 35 innings at the Triple-A level.  This lack of experience can show through a little bit as he can struggle to find the strike zone on occasion – something which better lineups will take advantage of better than the Giants did this weekend.  He’s definitely got the stuff to succeed, and if he can keep his walks under control, Chacin could turn into a spot starter in mixed leagues before long.  

Redraft: C   Keeper: B-

Alfredo Simon – RP – Baltimore

Yes, Alfredo Simon is your temporary closer in Baltimore and as you will often hear, “saves are saves”.  For those of you who can stand a little risk, pick up Simon and hang on for as long as the ride lasts – just be fully aware that it may end tomorrow.  And when it does end, it will most likely be in spectacular fashion.  Unless he turns into a different pitcher, Simon has no long-term fantasy value.

Redraft: C   Keeper: F

Brad Bergesen – SP – Baltimore

Bergesen’s strong 2009 performance may have been fluky, but he’s not this bad.  Right now, he sports a 10.88 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP – though some of these struggles may go back to his off-season shoulder injury, which he suffered shooting a promotional video for the Orioles.  Needless to say, the Orioles have since changed their policy about medical staff being present at video shoots.  But as far as your fantasy team, feel free to ignore Bergesen unless he turns in a few quality starts in a row.

Redraft: D-   Keeper: F

Jeff Manship – SP – Minnesota

No real write-up here since it looks like Nick Blackburn will be back for his next start, so Manship will be sent back to Triple-A.  If one of the Twins starters goes down, keep an eye on him though.  He’s a guy who throws enough strikes to succeed in short spurts in the majors.  Very short spurts.

Redraft: F   Keeper: F

Trevor Cahill – SP – Oakland

Going into the 2009 season, Cahill was generally rated higher in prospect lists than Oakland teammate Brett Anderson – now, he’s been sort of forgotten.  Cahill still has the potential to have a bright future ahead of him, but for right now, he doesn’t strike out guys and gives up too many HR’s in order to be a solid pickup.  He continued that in his first start after his call up, notching the same number of strikeout and HR’s allowed (3 of each).  Oakland is unlikely to go to anyone during Brett Anderson’s time on the DL, so it may be worth seeing if Cahill can bounce back and string together a few decent starts.  He’s much more likely to contribute positively to fantasy squads in either 2011 or 2012, and I still believe in Cahill long-term.

Redraft: D+   Keeper: B-

Josh Donaldson – C – Oakland

The last remaining minor league piece of the Rich Harden/Chad Gaudin trade from 2008, Donaldson is yet another in a line of interesting catching prospects to be summoned this week.  The A’s said he would be called up to backup Landon Powell, but he started both Saturday and Sunday and could be in line for a good chunk of at bats until Kurt Suzuki returns (which may be at the end on May 9 – the day he’s eligible to return).  He’s probably not worth bothering with as a short-term pickup as he hasn’t set the world on fire so far, but he’s an intriguing long-term prospect with solid OBP skills and potential 15-HR power.

Redraft: D   Keeper: C

Max Ramirez – C – Texas

Ramirez was almost dealt to Boston in the off-season for Mike Lowell before Texas backed out of that deal because of the health of Lowell’s thumb.  This a good thing if Ramirez wants to have any fantasy value in 2010.  Ramirez was a highly-touted prospect as recently as before last season, however he flopped badly in 2009 at Triple-A.  So badly in fact, that he was called up to backup Mr. Misty May (Matt Treanor).  He’ll likely have no value since Jarrod Saltalamacchia will be back up as soon as he remembers out how to hit.  He could still get his career back on track, but for now pass on him in anything but 2-catcher AL-only leagues.

Redraft: D-   Keeper: D

Ahead of the Curve

April 29, 2010
By Bret Sayre

Short introduction this week, but here are some lesser-owned (obviously depending on league size) pitchers who have a favorable next 5 start schedule. Of course, I could tell you that Tommy Hanson (HOU, @WAS, @MIL, NYM, @PIT) and Chris Carpenter (CIN, @PIT, HOU, WAS, LAA) have great upcoming starts, but you were going to start them anyway - and they're certainly not free agents.

Pitchers ho!

Hiroki Kuroda - Los Angeles (PIT, COL, @SD, SD, @CHC)

Jake Westbrook - Cleveland (TOR, @KC, @BAL, CIN, CHW)

Oliver Perez - New York (@CIN, WAS, @FLA, @WAS, PHI)

Clayton Richard - San Diego (MIL, COL, @SF, SF, @SEA)

Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, CJ Wilson, Rich Harden, Scott Feldman - Texas
Team upcoming schedule: @SEA, @OAK, KC, OAK, @TOR, LAA, BAL, CHC, @KC

Seriously, look at this team's upcoming schedule. Needless to say, I'm very high on ALL Rangers over the next month - hitters included.

Jeff Niemann - Tampa Bay (KC, @SEA, @LAA, CLE, @HOU)

David Price - Tampa Bay (KC, @OAK, @LAA, CLE, @HOU)

Bronson Arroyo - Cincinatti (NYM, @PIT, STL, @CLE, PIT)

Jhoulis Chacin - Colorado (@SF, @LAD, WAS, @CHC, @KC)

Gavin Floyd - Chicago (KC, TOR, @KC, FLA, @CLE)

And if you want to get crazy deep..

Jeff Manship - Minnesota (@CLE, BAL, CHW, @TOR, MIL)

Of course, Manship may not last more than one start in the Minnesota rotation, but with his first two starts against two of the worst teams in the AL, he'll have as good of a chance as possible.

The Luck Police

April 28, 2010
By Bret Sayre

I do understand the concept of small sample size, so let me just start with that. And with that said, let’s look at three weeks of BABIP stats! Obviously this early in the season, there are going to be huge swings in both directions as you’ll easily notice – but what we’ll go over today is more or less format of future “Luck Police” columns and a reminder that you should not overreact to terrible starts.

Let’s start with some hitters who will rebound based on their 5-yr Rolling BABIP (or Career BABIP if they’ve been in the show less than 5 years). Notice I said the word “will”. All stats are through yesterday’s games:






















Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez will be fine – maybe not 30/100 fine, but they’ll be pretty close to the guys you thought you were drafting. This may not be Hunter Pence’s breakout season, but he’ll be better than this. However, there are definitely some names high on this list that you can target – whether it’s on the waiver wire or through a trade.

The first name that jumps out to me here is Chris Coghlan. It is true; he’s been really scuffling so far this season, but you can take advantage of his lack of a track record and get him really cheap right now. In fact, I just participated in my final draft last night – a relatively shallow 10-team league with 23-man active roster and 6-man bench – and Coghlan was not even drafted with active players. Seriously. That’s 230 players deep. I snagged him with my first pick in the reserve portion of the draft because all of the statistical evidence you can find says he’s not going to struggle like this for much longer (all this despite the fact that last season’s .362 BABIP is probably not sustainable).

The other guys who are great targets at this point are Julio Borbon, Nick Johnson, Travis Snider, Yunel Escobar and Seth Smith. Borbon’s got too much speed to stay at a BABIP this low, even if he performed below his ability. Nick Johnson needs a few more hits to fall, and you’ll see a huge bump in runs/RBIs in the vaunted Yankee lineup. Escobar has a K-rate of 11% this year, which is below his career average (which has provided him with a .296 average) – so it doesn’t take a genius to figure out where he’s going. And then you’ve got great AL-only and NL-only targets in Snider and Smith. Travis Snider is both above his career BB% rate and below his career K% rate, which means his approach at the plate is improving. This will translate into more success – see Rasmus, Colby. Seth Smith should be a nice pickup as well, but he’s trickier since he may only see regular playing time for the next two weeks or so.

Now let’s move onto the guys who, for the most part, are hotter than a baked potato flying out of a volcano:






















This is really a much less helpful list. You’re not going to rush out to sell high on Tulowitski, Morneau or Longoria. And no one’s going to buy Kearns, Rosales or Juan Castro. So what you’ve got left are a handful of guys who will regress to the mean and may have some added value now before that happens. Scott Podsednik is one – although his speed will keep him valuable enough (the Royals are running a LOT). Gutierrez and Gonzalez are two guys; however, that you could spin into a more valuable player at this point. Both of them were sleepers going into the season and they’ve clearly both delivered so far – but they may never have higher trade values if your team has other needs. Same goes for anyone who can be convinced that Geovany Soto will be a top-5 catcher this season.

Now we’ll move onto pitchers – and since these numbers REALLY should be taken with a grain of salt since most starters have picked up 4 starts so far this year, I’m not even going to worry about the color commentary. We’ll save that for when it’s more meaningful.

Top 20 Future Risers:






















Top 20 Future Fallers:

Under the Bright Lights

April 26, 2010

By Bret Sayre 

So I spent this past weekend down in Chapel Hill, NC visiting my brother-in-law and his one month old son. Now, you might be asking yourself what this could possibly have to do with this column - and to that, I reply with a mildly sarcastic THREE THINGS! First of all, that is the reason why this is going up a day late (as you will notice, it's not Monday anymore). Second of all, I almost went to the Durham Bulls / Gwinnett Braves game in Durham on Friday night to see future "Under the Bright Lights" impact players Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings and (to a slightly lesser extent) Freddie Freeman. Unfortunately, as you can probably tell by my use of the word almost, I did not end up making it to the game. And finally, my wife's father actually played in the Yankees minor league farm system in the early 70's, making it all the way to AA. That wasn't much of a stretch, was it? Sadly, my brother-in-law is hoping that his son carries some of that genetic skill so that he can live out the dream he never fulfill of playing for his beloved Yankees. He's going to have to hire Scott Boras as an agent in order to make sure he slips to when the Yankees pick in the 2028 draft. Hey, it could happen. And now onto the callups that are affecting your fantasy teams this week:

Justin Smoak – 1B – Texas

So it turns out that Chris Davis needed to hit .188 with no power in order for the Rangers’ powers-that-be to call up their most prized hitting prospect in April.  Definitely the elite name of the week, Smoak is often compared (unfairly) to Mark Teixeira since they both were high Ranger draft picks at 1B.  Smoak does not have the raw power of Teixeira, but his all-around game compares favorably in all other areas.  He’s a potential 300/400/500 player who will spend a lot of time in the heart of Texas’s lineup and play very good defense at 1B.  Clearly this is nothing to shake your head at.  In keeper leagues, he’s probably already stashed somewhere, but Smoak needs to be owned in all AL-only and deep mixed redraft leagues.  Shallow-leaguers weak at 1B should keep a close eye on him as well.

Redraft:  B  Keeper:  A-

Eric Young Jr – 2B/OF – Colorado

Steals here!  Get your steals here!  If you need speed, pounce on Young now before he finds himself with consistent playing time.  If he can displace Clint Barmes (who is struggling mightily) at 2B, he could steal 40+ bases the rest of this season – and even if he can’t, he can still steal 10-20 bases with only sporadic playing time.  Jim Tracy made it clear earlier in the season that when Young got the call, he was not going to get the call to sit on the bench, so it would appear as though it’s time to see if Young is the Rockies 2B of the future.  He hasn’t been playing great so far this year at AAA, but his minor league track record speaks for itself – he’s got a full-season minor league average of 66 steals per year, and the only season he’s posted an OBP lower than .387 was 2007 (.359).  He could end up the top fantasy rookie of 2010 because of his huge steal potential.

Redraft:  B  Keeper:  B

Brett Cecil – SP – Toronto

Cecil has been dealing in the minors this year so far, no question about it - his 24/4 K/BB ratio in 17 1/3 innings at AAA-Las Vegas is a clear indicator of that (plus, Vegas is a hitter's paradise). Then in his debut on Friday, he throws up an 8/1 K/BB ratio against the Rays, albeit in a loss. If Cecil can keep up this kind of command, he's going to be a nice matchups play for as long as he's in the rotation - and with the unattractive collection of arms in Toronto, it could be a lengthy stay. That probably does not include the start he's got coming up against Boston on Wednesday, but May 3rd against Cleveland, sign me up!

Redraft: C+ Keeper: C

Darnell McDonald – OF – Boston

Many first round picks have had shorter paths to the majors than now 31-year old Darnell McDonald.  The 26th overall pick in the 1997 draft by the Orioles – McDonald got his first cup of coffee with Baltimore in 2004 and second with Minnesota in 2007 (combining for 45 AB in those two stops).  Now, even with his recent playing time in Boston, only has 164 career AB’s – however, he made quite an impression in his debut with Boston with a game-tying HR and game-winning single off the Monster.  Now he’s playing pretty consistently against lefties until Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury return.  He’s probably not worth worrying about at this point unless you’re in a super-deep league.

Redraft:  D  Keeper:  F

Luke Hughes – 3B – Minnesota

There's really nothing exciting about Brendan Harris' new backup in Minnesota outside of the fact that he's Australian. This automatically qualifies him for inclusion in this column eventhough he's effectively worthless in fantasy.

Redraft: F Keeper: F

Brennan Boesch – OF – Detroit

I know everyone is shocked (SHOCKED!) that Carlos Guillen is taking his rightful place on the DL. What people might not know is that the guy taking his roster spot can actually play. Boesch was the Tigers' 3rd round pick out of Cal in 2006 and hit 28 HRs for AA-Erie last season, leading the Eastern League. He continued his hot hitting this season, having compiled a 1.075 OPS in 15 games at AAA-Toledo (with a 1.223 OPS vs RHP). This is especially important because he will not be playing against lefties in Detroit. You could certainly do worse than Boesch in an AL-only league to try and capitalize on his solid start to the season.

Redraft: C- Keeper: D+

Rhyne Hughes – 1B – Baltimore

This write up is going to be very similar to the previous one with one exception - Hughes is not an injury replacement, he's taking over for the body formerly known as Garrett Atkins. Beyond that, Hughes and Boesch are pretty similar players. Hughes hit 25 HRs between AA and AAA last season and kept it up at AAA-Norfolk so far this year with a 1.088 OPS. You know exactly what you're getting with Hughes, a left handed hitter with plus raw power and no idea how to either hit lefties or properly control the strike zone (last season he had a 171/44 K/BB ratio). Between Hughes and Boesch, I prefer Boesch but it's pretty close.

Redraft: D+ Keeper: D

Under the Bright Lights

April 19, 2010

By Bret Sayre

There are very few things as a baseball fan that compare to seeing your favorite team call up a well-hyped homegrown prospect. That one moment when they're called up to the plate, the fan in all of us straddles the edge of our seat as we witness the peak of their potential. That's right - no matter how good this prospect ends up, he will never be as good as he is in your head right before he prepares for his first taste of MLB action. Unless, of course, he's Jason Heyward and cranks a 400+ ft monster HR in his first at bat. But as you know, Jason Heyward is a man among boys.

No matter how often these prospects come up and disappoint, the next one is always the savior of the franchise. That's the eternal optimism of being a fan - and it only gets more unrealistic the worse the major league team is. In fact, I'm pretty sure every Nationals fan expects Stephen Strasburg to come in and pitch a shutout every time he takes the mound. But for now, Washingtonians will have to wait for their savior. Yet just 200 miles or so up I-95, there's another hype train leaving the station, and that's where we start this week.

Ike Davis - 1B - New York (NL)

The funniest thing about the Ike Davis hype is that the terribleness of the Mets is directly proportional to the potential of Davis as a player. Now don't get me wrong, Davis is a good prospect, but the way his name is being thrown about in New York lately makes me think there are going to be a few more disappointed Mets fans when this all shakes out. Davis offers some power and a strong defensive presence at first base, and when your current options are Mike Jacobs, Daniel Murphy or Fernando Tatis, that sounds great. Just don't expect too much here. If he hits enough to hold on to the 1st base job, the best case scenario is that he hits about 20 HRs with a serviceable average (maybe .260-.270) - certainly worth a big bid in NL-only leagues right away and a speculative add if you're weak at 1B in a mixed league. Just be prepared in case he hits .220 and is sent back down when Murphy comes back in a few weeks.

Redraft: C+ Keeper: B

Wade LeBlanc - SP - San Diego

Anytime a pitcher in the Padres system comes up to the majors, it's automatically watch-worthy. However, LeBlanc actually had success in his 9-start stint in the majors last season, going 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The tough part here is that he was only called up to start against Arizona on Sunday in the place of injured starter Chris Young. But the good part? It's Chris Young that he's replacing - and that guy seemingly gets hurt all the time. So pick him up, and spot start him in favorable matchups - just not this coming week in Cincinnati.

Redraft: C- Keeper: D

Kris Benson - SP - Arizona

Yes, this Kris Benson. Needless to say, you don't want any part of him.

Redraft: F Keeper: F

Lou Montanez - OF - Baltimore

Montanez looks like he'll be one of the initial benefactors of Felix Pie's unfortunate injury which may keep him out for up to three months. He is someone to keep an eye on in really deep mixed and AL-only leagues, as he could get on a roll and be worth a short-term pickup. He put up manageable numbers in his debut two years ago - .295, 3 HR, 14 RBI in 112 AB - but he's also got a career 36/9 K/BB ratio so he is not going to be a guy you want to be patient with.

Redraft: D Keeper: F

Scott Olsen - SP - Washington

Now here's a name you'll remember. Olsen is attempting a comeback from surgery from a torn labrum in July, and was impressive enough that scribes were a bit surprised when the Nationals chose Garrett Mock over him to be their fifth starter. Now, only two short weeks into the season, they've changed their minds and Olsen made his debut against the Phillies on Thursday. He looked pretty decent for a questionable guy coming off shoulder surgery against the best lineup in the National League. If he can build up arm strength and stay in the rotation, he could offer up some value in NL-only leagues - but he will never reach the potential he had after his impressive 2006 season with the Marlins.

Redraft: D Keeper: D-

Justin Maxwell - OF - Washington

Maxwell is a guy who is all potential and projection, but few results so far. Probably the best athlete in the Nationals system, Maxwell has yet to show that he can hit high-level pitching consistently - although he showed his fantasy potential in Washington late last season, with 4 HRs and 6 SBs in 89 at bats. Project that out over a full season and you see why he's a guy you need to keep an eye on. If he can even hit .250 or .260, he could be Chris Young with a little more speed. He'll start off playing against lefties, but could be more if he shows he can fulfill some of that potential.

Redraft: C- Keeper: C

Kam Mickolio - RP - Baltimore

Mickolio is the ultimate end-game sleeper in the Baltimore bullpen with everyone seemingly imploding in save opportunities. With a power fastball and 196 K's in 188 minor league innings, it's easy to envision him taking over the closer role someday - however, Mike Gonzalez's contract makes that somewhat less likely this year if he were to stay healthy. Then again, it is Mike Gonzalez we're talking about here..

Redraft: D Keeper: C-

Ahead of the Curve

April 8, 2010

By Bret Sayre

Close your eyes and imagine you are Ryan Howard coming up to the plate, cheered on by a raucous weeknight crowd at Citizens Bank Park. It’s the seventh inning and the Phillies are down three runs, but there are two guys on base. Now you open your eyes and see Mike Pelfrey on the mound. Clearly, you’re pretty excited. Ball one. You step out of the box and return only to see Ubaldo Jimenez. Now extra thoughts start crossing your mind. You can feel your hands becoming slightly more defensive. You work the count to 3-2 and step out again. Now Jimenez is gone and Johan Santana is there. This is about to get good.

Baseball, more than anything else, is a game of matchups, and unfortunately we don’t have rosters filled with stars like Ryan Howard. Maybe you’ve got Kelly Johnson, Doug Davis and John Maine as the 23rd, 24th and 25th guys on your roster. Taking advantage of matchups is key as you try and get the most out of those final round draft picks or waiver pickups, and that’s where we think we can help. Since is it not only more helpful to look at this information for pitchers rather than hitters, but it’s a much more common strategy, we will be doing our due diligence to find helpful pitchers – and for more than just one spot start. In “Ahead of the Curve”, we will glance into the future to see what pitchers have the most advantageous matchups over the next 4-5 starts.

This column will start running every Thursday here at Fantasy Beards, but for our first go-through, let’s focus on pitchers who personally have delicious April matchups. Now, while some choices will be more obvious than others, we’ll try to focus on pitchers who may be available either on the waiver wire or potentially for a small trade. I mean, how much good does it really do for me to tell you that Adam Wainwright has a solid April schedule (HOU, NYM, @SF, ATL)? He’s already awesome. Where’s the value added in that?

So let’s get to the meat of this. Here are some guys who have the tastiest upcoming matchups for the next few weeks (superstars like Wainwright excluded), depending on your level of desperation, of course:

Jered Weaver - @OAK, @TOR, DET, CLE
Justin Duchscherer – @SEA, BAL, CLE, @TOR
Doug Davis - @CHC, @WAS, CHC, @SD
Tom Gorzellany - @CIN, HOU, @NYM, WAS
Anibal Sanchez – LAD, CIN, @HOU, SD
J.A. Happ - @HOU, WAS, @ATL, @SF
Johnny Cueto - @FLA, @PIT, SD, @HOU
Aaron Cook – NYM, @WAS, FLA, @SF
Carl Pavano – BOS, KC, @KC, @CLE
Gavin Floyd – CLE, @TOR, @CLE, SEA, @NYY

Now this clearly will not take into account future rainouts, injuries and manager-induced rotation changes. And if it did, well, that would be an entirely different issue altogether. So stay tuned for an updated version of this list again next Thursday, right here at your destination for all of the fantasy analysis people who live outside of their parent’s basements don’t have the time to do - Fantasy Beards!

The Luck Police

April 6, 2010

By Bret Sayre

There are few things that spark more of an argument in baseball these days than the proper (or improper) use of advanced statistics.  You’ve read the articles and you’ve seen the arguments.  This is no place for such arguments – if you don’t at least incorporate the most basic of advanced statistics into fantasy baseball, you’re operating at a disadvantage.  Personally, I’m into the advanced stats, but I’m a math guy.  Always have been.  The question is – which of these stats can really help you win your league?  Fortunately, I have your answer.

Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) and Batting Average on Balls In Play against (BABIPa) are two of my favorite stats to help predict future performance in the most difficult of fantasy categories.  Let’s face it, ERA and Batting Average can be a real crapshoot from year-to-year even with the most predictable of players.  So when a player is hitting .300 in mid-May and is a career .260 hitter, what can we look at in order to guess whether he’ll come back down to Earth or if he’s made improvements to his approach?  Has he cut down his strikeout rate?  Has he improved his walk rate?  Do we think this is just a luck-driven small sample size?

The difference between Fantasy Beards and other sites in this regard is that I don’t believe that everyone’s BABIP or BABIPa regress to a universal mean.  There are inherently players who make “better contact” than others.  There are pitchers who leave too many balls up in the zone.  That’s the beautiful thing about baseball – it takes all types.  So what we do here is compare a player’s current BABIP/BABIPa to their own personal history, using 5-year and 3-year rolling averages.  If I told you that Prince Fielder and Jason Bay both had .315 BABIP’s in 2009 – would you think that they would both slightly regress to the MLB mean of approximately .300?  Maybe, but if you look at their 5-yr rolling BABIP’s (Fielder - .300 and Bay - .322), you’d think a little differently.  

Same deal with pitchers.  Cole Hamels had a .317 BABIPa in 2009 and Matt Cain’s was .263 – pretty straight forward case of Hamels being unlucky and Cain being lucky, right?  Well, you’d be right about Hamels who has a 5-year BABIPa of .284 (and this is a big reason why a lot of people expect him to bounce back from his comparatively poor 2009 season).  But Cain, not so much.  As the immortal Denny Green might say, he was who we thought he was (his 5-year BABIPa is .269).

Now just like a lot of other stats, BABIP and BABIPa are not completely cut and dried.  For pitchers, defensive statistics can play a role in determining whether a lower than historical BABIPa can be replicated.  My calculations show that Felix Hernandez and Ryan Rowland-Smith are both candidates for regression because of their lower than historical BABIPa.  However, I believe that in their case, the majority of that can be attributed to the great improvements Seattle made as a defensive ball club – so I’m not concerned there.  For hitters, I tend to not be concerned about younger players who appear to have “figured it out” – although this is a much more subjective area.  Miguel Montero outperformed in 2009 as compared to his historical BABIP, but he also got more at-bats in 2009 than he had in his entire career up to that point.  Plus, I personally think he’s improved as a hitter (take that, objective analysis!)

On Tuesdays, I will be comparing players’ current year BABIP and BABIPa with their historical data to try and give some extra insight as to whether that .300 hitter will help your title run or if you should probably try to trade him before he implodes.  Of course, we’ll be starting this in May since anything before that would just be pointless due to small sample size, but until then, I’ll leave you with my thoughts on a few guys who deviated from their performance notably last season.

Pitchers to target

Kevin Slowey – 2009 BABIPa of .345, 5-yr BABIPa of .307
Matt Capps – 2009 BABIPa of .360, 5-yr BABIPa of .291
Derek Lowe – 2009 BABIPa of .326, 5-yr BABIPa of .292
Cole Hamels – 2009 BABIPa of .317, 5-yr BABIPa of .284
Ricky Nolasco – 2009 BABIPa of .316, 5-yr BABIPa of .297

Pitchers to Avoid

Randy Wolf – 2009 BABIPa of .251, 5yr BABIPa of .290
Leo Nunez – 2009 BABIPa of .242, 5yr BABIPa of .288
David Aardsma – 2009 BABIPa of .254, 5-yr BABIPa of .289
Edwin Jackson – 2009 BABIPa of .275, 5-yr BABIPa of .305
Huston Street – 2009 BABIPa of .240, 5-yr BABIPa of .265

Hitters to Target

Kelly Johnson – 2009 BABIP of .212, 5-yr BABIP of .290
Geovany Soto – 2009 BABIP of .246, 5-yr BABIP of .305
Ian Kinsler – 2009 BABIP of .239, 5-yr BABIP of .285
Chipper Jones – 2009 BABIP of .287, 5-yr BABIP of .332
Grady Sizemore – 2009 BABIP of .274, 5-yr BABIP of .316

Players to Avoid

Felipe Lopez – 2009 BABIP of .357, 5-yr BABIP of .321
Jason Bartlett – 2009 BABIP of .360, 5-yr BABIP of .325
Michael Bourn – 2009 BABIP of .362, 5-yr BABIP of .327
Rajai Davis – 2009 BABIP of .359, 5-yr BABIP of .325
Casey Blake – 2009 BABIP of .326, 5-yr BABIP of .305

Under the Bright Lights

April 5, 2010

By Bret Sayre

This is always the most serene time of the fantasy baseball season, a time of unbridled optimism.  The league is entirely up for grabs.  Your team hasn’t suffered any crippling injuries, yet.  The player you wanted to take but just decided not to risk the extra dollar on hasn’t completely broken out, yet.  These things will happen.  They happen ever y year.  But not yet.  Right now, the veterans who showed up healthy and in great shape are still healthy and in great shape.  This year’s breakout pitchers are still ready to take the league by storm and make the jump to that next level.  Bounce-back seasons are still in the cards for all of the guys who disappointed you last year.  I’m looking at you, Francisco Liriano.  And most importantly, the sheen on all of the 2010 hyped rookie class is still being generously applied.

This is the focus of our Monday column here at Fantasy Beards.  Each week we will look at all of the callups from the prior week and give you a quick synopsis of who they are, what to expect and how quickly you should rush out to see if they’re available in your league.  Then each player will get two grades, one for a redraft league and one for a keeper/dynasty league – and this is what the rating system should show you:

Grade	Redraft (this year)	Keeper (future years)
A	Above-average starter	Potential superstar, 1st-2nd round pick
B	League-average starter	Potential above average starter
C	Good AL/NL-only pickup	Potential average starter
D	Not yet, but keep an eye on him	Likely to max out as a bench guy
F	Don't bother keeping an eye on him	Not a prospect

 
We’ve got a lot of guys starting the year in the majors who either have no MLB experience or spent the majority of last season in the minors.  So let’s focus on the guys who will enter the season with jobs, starting with the most obvious.

Jason Heyward – OF – Atlanta

You’ve heard all of the comps, all of the Bobby Cox gushing and all of the media coronations.  There’s really no need to dig much deeper here.  We’re looking at a huge-ceiling player with an advanced approach at the plate, who by all accounts is a grounded kid who won’t get rattled making the jump to the majors.  However, even the best seasons of “greatest prospect ever” types haven’t been earth-shattering, so don’t set your expectations extraordinarily high for this season.  Also remember that he’ll be starting the season hitting 7th in that lineup, so he probably won’t offer much more than 70 runs scored if he’s up for the whole season.  However, he will be a star.  If he’s available in your keeper league – first of all, you should probably find a more competitive keeper league (trust me, it’s fun) – pick him up immediately.  Seriously, run.

Redraft:  A        Keeper:  A+

Austin Jackson – OF – Detroit

The centerpiece of the Curtis Granderson off-season deal is ready to make his long awaited major league debut, but you’ll have to forgive everyone if there’s less excitement around this than there would have been two years ago.  Jackson’s prospect shine has most definitely dimmed over the last two seasons, but he still has the skill set to be a solid regular for the Tigers (as long as he’s cheap).  It would not surprise me one bit if he became a poor man’s Granderson with a little less slugging, but he may become a drag on your batting average hitting first in that lineup.  I think he’s a near lock for double digit steals and homers, with more upside on the steals.

Redraft:  B        Keeper:  B-

Scott Sizemore – OF – Detroit

It seems like you can’t talk about Jackson without discussing Sizemore as well and for good reason.  They’re both rookies starting for the same club with similar skill sets.  Sizemore should get on base, but may have trouble keeping his average about .250 – of course you’ll have no problem living with that if he can go 15-15 from 2B.  His low average draft position makes him a great stash for your bench because if he hits his potential, you’ve got yourself a good trade chip (whether it’s Sizemore or your drafted starter..)

Redraft:  B+        Keeper:  B

Jaime Garcia – SP – St Louis

One of my favorite sleepers going into the season in NL-only leagues pitched his way into the St Louis rotation this spring, and he’s got the stuff to stay there.  This is evidenced slightly by his 1.93 ERA and 16/5 K-BB ratio in 18 2/3 spring innings.  Now, you’ll also hear that he will only be helped by super pitching coach Dave Duncan, but be careful here.  I’m a little reminded of the case of Anthony Reyes, another solid pitching prospect coming up through the minors, who didn’t quite mesh with Duncan and ended up struggling and consequently being shipped out of town.  I’m not overly worried about this with Garcia, but have it in the back of your mind – Duncan’s masterpieces are generally with veterans, not rookies.

Redraft:  C+        Keeper:  B-

Mike Leake – SP – Cincinnati

Leake is probably the most surprising rookie to find himself with a job coming out of spring training, and for good reason – he’s never thrown a minor league pitch.  Of course, he impressed in his stint in the Arizona Fall League in 2009 and threw down his very polished and heady gauntlet in March.  What you see is what you’re going to get with Leake.  He’s as MLB-ready of a prospect as anyone not named Strasburg from this past season’s draft, and looking at his college stats from last season you’ll see why.  In his junior season, he went 16-1 for Arizona State with a 1.71 ERA, 10.3 K/9 and .193 BAA in 141 IP.  The Cactus League’s version of Butler, overtook the initial favorite (Maloney), the media darling (Chapman) and the minor league pedigree (Wood) to claim the job – and I don’t see him giving it back.

Redraft:  B        Keeper:  C+

Jennry Mejia – SP/RP – New York (NL)

I know sometimes it doesn’t seem like the Mets do anything right and that’s because it’s true, and the decision to turn Mejia into a short reliever is certainly another one of those cases.  Mejia’s got what the scouts love to call a “live arm”, but he’s still only got a very slight idea as to where it’s going.  He’ll probably have some success right away because his stuff is really good, but he’ll run into a wall at some point probably around Memorial Day.  Then they’re going to wish they let him develop as a starter in AA ball.  In fact, I’m downgrading his future potential just because I have no confidence that the Mets front office won’t screw this up.

Redraft:  D        Keeper:  C+

Adam Moore – C – Seattle

Moore is a solid, yet unexciting prospect.  He needs work on his defense and that’s the reason he likely will not start the season getting the majority of the playing time.  However, he will end up with that starting job sooner rather than later, and he’s got the potential to hit at around a .280-.290 clip.  In AL-only and two catcher leagues, he could prove to be an asset even if he doesn’t hit double-digit HRs.

Redraft:  D+        Keeper:  C

My Bearded Thesis

My Bearded Thesis
April 2, 2010

By Bret Sayre

My name is Bret and I love fantasy baseball.  I prefer rotisserie leagues because there are more things in my control.  I prefer auction leagues because none of my favorite strategies work in a snake draft.  I wish the MLB At Bat application on my iPhone worked better.  I have an enormous man-crush on Ryan Braun.  I despise taking players who only steal bases – I’m looking at you, Juan Pierre – even though I know they’re valuable and even sometimes necessary.  I don’t do this for a living, despite what my wife may think.  I take great pride in coming up with analogies that interest me.  I understand that sometimes these analogies only interest me.  I watch a lot of baseball and a lot of it has nothing to do with any leagues I’m in.  I love reading Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America.  I would want to know someone’s leanings and tendencies in the leagues they play in so I could put their advice in context.  I am going to devote the next paragraph to just that.

I don’t keep many major league batters on my bench.  I’m not the type of owner who fidgets with my lineup unless I’m trying to platoon a particular player.  I don’t think I started Jason Kubel once against a left-hander last season in a daily transaction league.  I prefer to fill my bench spots with potential high-impact position players or pitchers who can have a positive impact with the right matchups.  I have Brett Wallace on a lot of my teams because I think he’ll hit right away when he comes up.  I have Andy Pettitte on a lot of my teams because I think he’s almost an automatic start in non-Fenway road games.  I stream pitchers from my bench, not from waivers – and I still need to be cognizant of inning limits in August and September.  I have a full blown man-crush on Ryan Braun.  I may have mentioned that already.  I don’t throw a lot of high draft picks or auction dollars at pitchers, the burn rate is too high.  I like to own as many middle relievers as I can play at once and work my starters into the lineup when they are pitching.

I am the creator of Fantasy Beards, and yes I have a beard.  I plan on having daily content here to help your quest for a championship.  I am also planning on having multimedia content as well for those who prefer that format.  I can be reached by e-mail at fantasybeards@gmail.com or follow me on Twitter (@fantasybeards).  I will answer any fantasy question you’ve got.

My name is Bret and I love fantasy baseball.  Now, let’s have some fun.