The Youth Movement: Devin Mesoraco

October 19, 2011

Devin Mesoraco, the 15th overall selection in the 2007 draft, may only be 23 years old, but has already had his share of ups and downs on his way through the Cincinnati Reds farm system. In his first three minor league seasons, Mesoraco had OBPs of .310, .311 and .311 - consistent to be sure, but not very good - and a combined 18 HRs in 745 ABs. All signs were pointing towards Mesoraco becoming a bust before he ever had a chance to reach the majors before breaking out with a fantastic 2010 season -- a season in which he hit .302 across three levels (Hi-A, AA, AAA) with 26 HRs and a 80/43 strikeout-to-walk ratio, leading to a .377 OBP. He followed that up with an 855 OPS at Triple-A Louisville in 2011 - hitting ..289 with 15 HRs. Now he is a top-10 prospect in all of baseball who's ready to take on a full-time job with the Reds.

So why the sudden improvement in 2010? The tools have always been there, so the explanations tend to be either a lack of conditioning (he's listed at 6'1" and 220 pounds, which is reportedly a good deal less than he weighed back in 2009) or just a general lack of effort. His performance the last two years suggests that neither of these things is much of an issue right now.

The unknown issue as it relates to his 2012 fantasy value is whether he will make the opening day roster. Right now, Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan are still with the team, although you would expect one of them not to be back with the club next year. If Mesoraco makes the team, he immediately becomes the Reds catcher with greatest upside, even if he is splitting time in April. With both a hit tool and power tool that show plus-potential, Mesoraco profiles as a .280-.290 hitter with the potential to hit 20+ HRs per season. He won't steal any bases, but you won't need him too -- that's plenty valuable enough for a catcher. Also, even though he struggled in a 50 AB MLB audition this September, the positive is that he was able to keep his K rate at 20% which is consistent with his minor league career.

If we get to late March and it looks like Mesoraco will be on the opening day roster, I will have him ranked in my top 12 catchers. He certainly has the ability to hit .260 with 20 HRs and 65 RBI if he's given the playing time. Otherwise, he'll be a player to watch as prospects are called up in early June.

We're Back! With a New Off-Season Project and Lineup!

October 13, 2011

Fans, Romans, Countrymen,

I know it's been a while.  You've missed me.  I've missed you.  So let's not harp on the fact that I've been an absentee blogger for the last 15 months.  If there's anything we've learned since I started this blog is that by now I'm surely out of excuses.  Moving on!

This off-season, I am going to take an individual look at all 30 MLB teams -- what their lineup and rotation might look like, who you should target, who you should avoid and what off-the-radar guys you should know about.  We're going to go through the National League first, from worst record to best record and then take the project to the American League.  Since free agency won't start until 5 days after the World Series ends, this project will go live by mid-November with the hotbed of fantasy value that is the Houston Astros.

In the meantime (and throughout the rest of the off-season), I'll be writing a couple of times a week mostly about 2012 rookies to keep tabs on ("The Youth Movement") and players who it might feel a little uncomfortable to believe in, but you should anyway ("OK Fine, I Believe").  Also, check out the sweet twitter feed that I finally figured out how to link to on the right side here.  Fancy, I know.

So grab a soda pop and a large box of your favorite candy snack and just stare at the screen here until the next post shows up.  Or, you know, check back in healthy time increments.  It won't make you any less dedicated of a reader.

Your humble host,
Bret

What We've Learned

June 22, 2010

There are many things that are perfectly viable reason for not updating a website for six weeks, and there are also many things that are not.  Let’s start with five excuses that, as Marisa Tomei would say, “hold waw-tah”:

1)        “I’m expecting a child”
2)        “I’m moving”
3)        “I’ve been training for and/or participating in the Amazing Race”
4)        “I’ve been in the hospital”
5)        “My computer stopped working”

Now, the excuses which are just lame:

1)        “I forgot”
2)        “I’m training for a reality show that is NOT the Amazing Race”
3)        “I’ve been focusing on my real job”
4)        “Anything excuse involving a pet”
5)        “I got married”

So let’s just get this over with.  My wife and I are having a baby and we bought a house, so stop holding my damn feet to the fire and let’s get back to fantasy baseball!  Excuses over!

Six weeks is an eternity in baseball, so let’s go over what we’ve learned since I last updated this abomination of a website.  In getting into the World Cup spirit, this is going to be a list of 32 items separated into eight groups – just go with it:

Group A – The Rookies

1)        Stephen Strasburg is the second coming of whatever you believe in.  If it’s Jesus, great.  If it’s unicorns, fine.  Whatever you believe to be the symbol of spirituality or enlightenment, Strasburg is that entity personified.
2)        Mike Stanton swings and misses a lot.  So much so that as of writing this, he’s got a .233 average which is completely unsustainable based on his .391 BABIP.  Yea, that’s correct.
3)        Starlin Castro is going to be a good player.  Just not yet.  A singles hitter at the bottom of a punchless lineup, no thank you.  Buy him in keeper leagues where his value has been deflated.
4)        Carlos Santana is the real deal.  7 walks and 3 K’s in his first 35 plate appearances means he’s not intimidated by MLB pitching.  You definitely want him over fellow catching rookie Buster Posey.

Group B – The Resurrected

1)        Alex Rios will keep this up, folks.  He’s now a legit top-20 player.
2)        The Texas OF/DH combo of Josh Hamilton and Vlad Guerrero is absolutely raking.  You know the type of injury risk that comes with this territory, but as the Texas sun heats up, bats don’t cool off.
3)        David Wright’s power.  Yes he can hit 30 HR’s, as I told you at the beginning of the season.
4)        Francisco Liriano is taking a dagger straight to the heart of the owners who believed in him last season by being completely dominant this season.  I am one of those owners.  

Group C – The Wheels are Coming Off

1)        A.J. Burnett is not getting enough K’s to warrant being this inconsistent.  Make him someone else’s problem, but wait until he has a good start first.
2)        James Shields is struggling as of late too, but he’s got the stones to back it up.  A 4.50 ERA and 3.51 xFIP, along with a .345 BABIPa, mean buy low on him while you can.
3)        Alfonso Soriano has had an awful June (and his BA has dipped from around .320 to .270), but his rate stats are almost identical to his first two months.  He won’t get his average back up to .300, but he’s not falling off a cliff.
4)        Michael Bourn, however, is falling off a cliff.  I know he’s got the steals, but if you’re in a non-deep H2H league, he needs to be dropped.

Group D – Closers

1)        Brad Lidge is a top-10 closer the rest of the way.  I know he makes people nervous, but if he didn’t, he’d be top-5.
2)        Same goes for Bobby Jenks.  His ERA is down to 4.39, as compared to his xFIP of 2.70 - and on top of that, he’s got a 13/1 K-BB ratio in 9 2/3 June innings.
3)        Sell on Matt Lindstrom, if you can.  His stats still look good, but his 4.3% HR/FB ratio won’t stay that low.  Plus, Brandon Lyon is dealing in the 8th and is still making closer money…
4)        In the obvious department, Mariano Rivera is awesome.  So awesome in fact that he hasn’t given up a hit since June 1st.  That was three weeks ago.  I mean, he can’t sustain his .144 BABIP, but who cares?  The guy’s a marvel.

Group E – Guys who are injured that I want

1)        Edinson Volquez
2)        Brett Anderson
3)        Coco Crisp
4)        Jorge De La Rosa

Group F – Guys who are injured that I do NOT want

1)        Brandon Webb
2)        Travis Snider
3)        Brad Penny
4)        Mark Derosa

Group G – For deeper leagues

1)        Don’t sleep on Tommy Hunter.  He certainly won’t maintain a 2.31 ERA, but you could do much worse in a 12 or 14 team league.  Hunter is bound to have some soft matchups, a.k.a. Oakland and Seattle, down the stretch and isn’t walking many guys (6 BB in 4 starts).
2)        Russell Branyan has been heating up a bit as of late, hitting .279 with 4 HR’s so far in June.  That’s a 30-HR pace, and he’s definitely less widely owned than he should be.
3)        Rick Porcello has had a brutal start to the season for sure, but you only need to look back a few weeks to see what a couple of starts in the minors did to help Max Scherzer.  Porcello will be valuable down the stretch if you can stash him now.
4)        Evan Meek is getting closer to potentially logging some time at closer in Pittsburgh.  Dotel will be on the block, and if they can get anything decent for him, he’ll be moved.  Meek and his 0.68 should then step in quite adequately.

Group H – Lingering Questions

1)        Will Phil Hughes have a soft or hard innings cap?  If the Yanks limit him down the stretch, it could sink fantasy teams relying on him.  If the Yanks push him down the stretch, his value in keeper leagues goes down since his 2011 injury risk will be much higher.
2)        Will Dan Haren really be WORSE in the 2nd half this year?  He’s clearly been unlucky so far – his ERA is more than a point higher than his xFIP and his BABIPa is unsustainably high (.344) – but expecting him to be better as the season goes on, defies all current Dan Haren logic we have.
3)        Will Zack Greinke win 10 games?  He doesn’t look like the same pitcher we saw last year, but he surely doesn’t deserve this horrendous lack of run support.  By the way, his story is one all you Ubaldo Jimenez owners in keeper leagues should heed.
4)        What is the deal with Brennan Boesch?  And yes, that was meant to be said in a very Seinfeld-ian voice.  A man cannot maintain a BABIP of above .380 – look for him to fall back to earth as Austin Jackson has this past month.  There must be something in the water in Detroit which allows these rookies to tempt fate for an extended period of time.

The Morning Shave - May 7, 2010

Today’s Spotlight –

Gordon Beckham is not this bad, he’s really not - but at this point, he’s got to be on your bench.  Actually, hopefully he’s been on your bench for the last week or two.  However, regardless of how frustrated you are with him, you need to stay the course here.  Here’s a quote from Ozzie Guillen after yesterday’s game: “Maybe the first time ever this kid go through this.  He's the golden boy.  He grew up in Little League, he hit .600.  He go to high school, best player, go to college, kick some butt.  He go to the minor leagues, erupted.  First year in the big leagues, kicked some butt.  It's easy to play this game when you're good.  It's tough to play this game when you're down.  He's got all my support."  Beckham has the talent to be Chase Utley-light, and can still do it this season – I still believe he can get to a final line of .270/15/10 with upside in power if he turns it on.  But what we know right now is that his K-rate is a bit out of control compared to last season (24% to 17%) – which in turn is higher than his 13% number in the minors.  But just watching him, you notice that he’s uncomfortable with his swing – and like Ozzie believes, he’ll get through it.  Through this point in the season his ground ball rate is nearly 50% (40% last year) and his infield fly rate is 18% compared to 12% last year.  What does all of this mean?  Well, besides the fact that Fangraphs is awesome, it just means he’s out of sorts.  Keep him on your bench right now, but as soon as you see him get two good games under his belt, put the Golden Boy back in your lineup and enjoy the ride.

Other Daily Notes –

·        Look out, Vlad Guerrero has reappeared on fantasy radars in a big way.  After last night’s 2-HR performance, he’s hitting .340 with 5 HR’s, 23 RBI’s and even 3 SB’s.  Best of all, his K-rate is down from his last few seasons, and he’s close to getting OF eligibility in 5-game leagues.
·        Jeff Niemann had another dominant outing last night (albeit against Seattle), but he’s now sporting an impressive 2.23 ERA and 0.99 WHIP after 6 starts.  Pitching in front of a dominant offense, Niemann should be a reliable starter the rest of the season – even if he doesn’t raise his K/9 rate above about 7.
·        Andre Ethier just continues to prove me wrong, and I don’t like being proved wrong.  I never really took him all that seriously (neither did Billy Beane as he traded him for Milton Bradley), and he's really forced my opinion of him to change against my will.  He’s now up to a .371 average and 10 HR’s on the season and shows no signs of slowing down.  Actually his 11/11 K/BB ratio suggests he’s still improving.  Scary.

Streamers’ Paradise, 5-day Forecast —

May 7, 2010:
1        Mat Latos, San Diego (@ HOU)
2        Chris Volstad, Florida (@ WAS)
3        Kevin Millwood, Baltimore (@ MIN)
Deep        Esmil Rogers, Colorado (@ LAD)
Avoid        Phil Hughes, New York (@ BOS)

May 8, 2010:
1        Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado (@ LAD)
2        Justin Masterson, Cleveland (v DET)
3        Joe Saunders, Los Angeles (@ SEA)
Deep        Todd Wellemeyer, San Francisco (@ NYM)
Avoid        Clay Buchholz, Boston (v NYY)

May 9, 2010:
1        Max Scherzer, Detroit (@ CLE)
2        Scott Feldman, Texas (v KC)
3        Nick Blackburn, Minnesota (v BAL)
Deep        Jason Vargas, Seattle (v LAA)
Avoid        Cole Hamels, Philadelphia (v ATL)

May 10, 2010:
1        Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati (@ PIT)
2        John Maine, New York (v WAS)
3        Doug Davis, Milwaukee (v ATL)
Deep        Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh (v CIN)
Avoid        Joel Piniero, Los Angeles (v TB)

May 11, 2010:
1        Scott Olsen, Washington (@ NYM)
2        Jonathan Niese, New York (v WAS)
3        Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati (@ PIT)
Deep        David Hernandez, Baltimore (v SEA)
Avoid        Tim Hudson, Atlanta (@ MIL)

Yesterday’s forecast:
1        Matt Harrison, Texas (v KC) – 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 1 K (ND)
2        Carl Pavano, Minnesota (v BAL) – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 8 K (L)
3        Scott Olsen, Washington (v ATL) – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K (ND)
Deep        Dave Bush, Milwaukee (@ LAD) – 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K (ND)
Avoid        Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston (v LAA) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 B (W)

The Bearded Bandwagon—

Here is a list of bandwagons we are on here at Fantasy Beards.  The descriptions show how strongly we feel about them – ranging from “driving!” (a bandwagon we feel super strong about) to “evacuated!” (a bandwagon we jumped off like it was on fire).  Nothing will get erased from this list over the course of the season, so any embarrassing excursions will be there for you to laugh at (and all new bandwagons are starred).

The Good:
James Shields WILL finish in the top-3 of AL Cy Young voting (driving!)
David Wright WILL hit 30+ HR’s (firmly on)
Barry Zito WILL finish the year with an ERA under 3.25 and a WHIP under 1.20 (on)
Daisuke Matsuzaka WILL win 10+ games (on, but getting antsy)
Johnny Cueto WILL end the season as a top-40 pitcher (on, but getting antsy..)

The Bad:
Matt Capps WON’T get 25 saves this season (firmly on)
Carlos Santana WON’T hit double digit HRs this year (firmly on)
Brian Roberts WON’T play in more than 50 games this season (on)

The Ugly:
Javier Vazquez WON’T get his ERA below 5.00 at any point this season (on)

Look Out Below! –

A constantly revolving list of the top 10 most vulnerable closers in baseball, along with the guy we’d handcuff him with:

1) *Manny Corpas, Colorado (Franklin Morales)
2) *Alfredo Simon, Baltimore (Koji Uehara)
3) *Chris Perez, Cleveland (Tony Sipp)
4) Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney)
5) Octavio Dotel (Evan Meek)
6) Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)
7) Neftali Feliz (Frank Francisco)
8) Kevin Gregg (Jason Frasor)
9) Brad Lidge (Danys Baez)
10) Matt Lindstrom (Brandon Lyon)

*Currently an injury replacement

Today’s Matchup to Watch –

Mat Latos vs. Houston’s “offense”

Latos has actually been pretty solid outside of a disaster start in Florida on April 26th – 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP – so a start against Houston looks like a good chance for him to get back on fantasy radar screens.  The Astros have scored the fewest runs in the league (80) and a 600 team OPS, which can only be described as “special”.  If he can get through this start the way he’s supposed to, he’s on his way back to being a guy who you only bench in tough road starts.

The Morning Shave - May 6, 2010

Today’s Spotlight –

Will he or won’t he?  That’s the main question around Barry Zito’s resurgence in 2010.  Will he be the pitcher the Giants thought they were getting when they shelled out WAY too much money for him a few years back?  The two things he’ll need to maintain if he wants to prove the doubters wrong is his K/BB ratio and a low BABIPa.  Right now, he’s got a 2.3 K/BB ratio – and Zito hasn’t had a ratio that high since 2002 (the year he won the AL Cy Young).  He’s also got a .228 BABIPa (which compared to his 5-yr Rolling Average – Luck Police plug! – of .272 has some regression in it); however, he has had multiple seasons with a BABIPa right around .250.  So what am I saying?  I’m buying on Barry Zito.  His ERA won’t stay this low, mostly due to the fact that he’s given up exactly zero HR’s this season and he’s got a very steady career average of about 1 HR/9.  But can he finish the year with a 3.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 160 K’s?  I’m starting to think that he can – and based on where he was drafted this year (ADP was somewhere in the low-300’s), he could be one of the key cogs in a championship team.

Other Daily Notes –

·        Carlos Lee finally hit his first HR last night, and did it in dramatic fashion – making it a walk-off 2-run shot to beat the D-Backs.  He’s hitting .297 over his last 10 games, and more importantly he’s got only 1 K in his last 22 AB’s.  That’s more like the Carlos Lee we know and love.  If his owner’s not a believer, make him a believer in someone you’ve got.
·        Matt Garza continues to dominate, going 8 innings strong against the Mariners only giving up 2 runs and striking out 5.  He improves his record to 5-1 with the win, and although he’s had a relatively weak schedule so far (2 BAL, SEA, KC included), look for him to be a very valuable #2 fantasy starter in 2010.
·        David Wright hit his 7th HR yesterday off Johnny Cueto in Cincinnati (and for those Citi Field haters, only 6 have come on the road – wait, what?).  He’s now on pace for 40 HR’s and 40 SB’s, and although he won’t get there, those who believed and drafted him as a 2nd round pick are feeling pretty good right about now.

Streamers’ Paradise, 5-day Forecast —

May 6, 2010:
1        Matt Harrison, Texas (v KC)
2        Carl Pavano, Minnesota (v BAL)
3        Scott Olsen, Washington (v ATL)
Deep        Dave Bush, Milwaukee (@ LAD)
Avoid        Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston (v LAA)

May 7, 2010:
1        Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit (@ CLE)
2        Chris Volstad, Florida (@ WAS)
3        Kevin Millwood, Baltimore (@ MIN)
Deep        Esmil Rogers, Colorado (@ LAD)
Avoid        Phil Hughes, New York (@ BOS)

May 8, 2010:
1        Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado (@ LAD)
2        Justin Masterson, Cleveland (v DET)
3        Joe Saunders, Los Angeles (@ SEA)
Deep        Todd Wellemeyer, San Francisco (@ NYM)
Avoid        Clay  Buchholz, Boston (v NYY)

May 9, 2010:
1        Max Scherzer, Detroit (@ CLE)
2        Scott Feldman, Texas (v KC)
3        Nick Blackburn, Minnesota (v BAL)
Deep        Jason Vargas, Seattle (v LAA)
Avoid        Cole Hamels, Philadelphia (v ATL)

May 10, 2010:
1        Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati (@ PIT)
2        John Maine, New York (v WAS)
3        Doug Davis, Milwaukee (v ATL)
Deep        Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh (v CIN)
Avoid        Joel Piniero, Los Angeles (v TB)

Yesterday’s forecast:
1        Brandon Morrow, Toronto (@ CLE) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 9 K (ND)
2        Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati (v NYM) – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 8 K (ND)
3        Clayton Richard, San Diego (v COL) – 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 5 K (ND)
Deep        Freddy Garcia, Chicago (v KC) – 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 4 K (W)
Avoid        Brad Penny, St Louis (@ PHI) – 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K (L)

The Bearded Bandwagon—

Here is a list of bandwagons we are on here at Fantasy Beards.  The descriptions show how strongly we feel about them – ranging from “driving!” (a bandwagon we feel super strong about) to “evacuated!” (a bandwagon we jumped off like it was on fire).  Nothing will get erased from this list over the course of the season, so any embarrassing excursions will be there for you to laugh at (and all new bandwagons are starred).

The Good:
James Shields WILL finish in the top-3 of AL Cy Young voting (driving!)
David Wright WILL hit 30+ HR’s (firmly on)
*Barry Zito WILL finish the year with an ERA under 3.25 and a WHIP under 1.20 (on)*
Daisuke Matsuzaka WILL win 10+ games (on)
Johnny Cueto WILL end the season as a top-40 pitcher (on, but getting antsy..)

The Bad:
Matt Capps WON’T get 25 saves this season (firmly on)
Carlos Santana WON’T hit double digit HRs this year (firmly on)
Brian Roberts WON’T play in more than 50 games this season (on)

The Ugly:
Javier Vazquez WON’T get his ERA below 5.00 at any point this season (on)

Look Out Below! –

A constantly revolving list of the top 10 most vulnerable closers in baseball, along with the guy we’d handcuff him with:

1) *Alfredo Simon, Baltimore (Koji Uehara)
2) *Franklin Morales, Colorado (Manny Corpas)
3) *Chris Perez, Cleveland (Tony Sipp)
4) Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney)
5) Neftali Feliz (Frank Francisco)
6) Kevin Gregg (Jason Frasor)
7) Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)
8) Octavio Dotel (Evan Meek)
9) Brad Lidge (Danys Baez)
10) Matt Lindstrom (Brandon Lyon)

*Currently an injury replacement

Today’s Matchup to Watch –

Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Scott Kazmir

Just two years ago, this would have been a great matchup between two top-25 pitchers.  Now, it’s a war of attrition.  This game is much more likely to be a 14-12 debacle than any sort of pitcher’s duel, but it’s definitely worth watching to see if either of these pitchers will end up back on fantasy radars.  Kazmir has historically had success in Fenway – I can’t find his career numbers there, but since 2007, he’s 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 39 K’s in 40 IP there.  Can either of them recapture their old magic?  It’s certainly worth checking out to see – worst comes to worst, LASER SHOW!

The Luck Police

May 5, 2010
By Bret Sayre

Ladies and gentlemen, the story you’re about to hear is true; however, the names have not been changed to protect the lucky.  Within this column we’ll take a weekly look at BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for hitters and BABIPa (batting average on balls in play against) for pitchers to determine how much regression to the mean you can expect for different guys.  The process we use here at Fantasy Beards is a comparison between current stats and 5-year rolling stats (or career stats if they’ve been in the show for less than 5 years); since we firmly believe that everyone regressed to different statistical means.  We’ll then point out some guys who we think are interesting.  This disclaimer will self-destruct in 5, 4, 3..

Let’s start with the hitters.  Here are your Top-20 Future Risers:






















The most interesting name on this list?  Paul Konerko.  The first thought with Konerko is that he’s a sell-high – he was a popular 1B sleeper in the pre-season, but right now leads the majors in HR’s with 12.  The crazy thing though, is that his peripheral stats are off-the-charts compared to what we’ve grown to expect from him.  His K/BB rate is 10/19 and he has NEVER had more walks than strikeouts in a single season – and the improvement is in both areas.  His current K-rate of 11% would be tied for the lowest of his career (oddly with 2003, his worst season last decade) and his current BB-rate of 17% would shatter his career high of 13% (in 2008).  This means, we’re potentially looking at a career year for Konerko in 2010 – and considering he’s had two years of .275/40/100, that’s saying a lot.

Most of the guys we talked about last week are still on this list and still make pretty good buy-lows.  Seth Smith won’t have too much time left for his luck to turn around as Brad Hawpe will be back soon, but he’s certainly capable of it.  The Cubs will be awfully happy when Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee start getting a little luckier, and fantasy owners should not have any concerns here.  I’m starting to get a little concerned about Chris Coghlan though, and not because I don’t expect his luck to turn around.  The craziest stat of the 2010 season so far has to be the fact that Coghlan has ZERO extra base hits through 88 AB’s this season – this compared to the 46 XBH he had in just over 500 AB’s last season.  

Now let’s move onto the guys who, for the most part, are hotter than:






















There are definitely a few guys on here who I think have a more sustainable level of BABIP improvement than others.  The three that jump out to me on this list are Colby Rasmus, Brett Gardner and Elvis Andrus.  Colby Rasmus should not be a career .278 BABIP guy (and will not be when all is said and done), and while he does have some regression ahead of him, there’s no reason he can’t be a .280 hitter instead of a .250 one.  Brett Gardner is getting pitches to hit and taking advantage of his speed – someone as fast as him should have BABIP over .320 (for example, you’ll see Michael Bourn has a .327 5-yr BABIP) and could maintain a .300 batting average.  Additionally, he’s well on-pace for the lowest K-rate of his career.  All of the same things apply for Andrus – except that he’s got a much higher upside than Gardner does.

Outside of that, you’re looking at a lot of solid short-term options in Kearns, Rosales, Theriot and Schierholtz who will all cool off shortly and some guys who potentially could have some actual improvement (but I don’t believe in yet) like Chris Young and Franklin Gutierrez.  Longoria, Werth and Morneau will regress but are still awesome.  Just don’t be the guy chasing Pudge or Andy LaRoche – neither of those things will end well..

Now we’ll move onto pitchers – and since these numbers REALLY should be taken with a grain of salt since most starters have picked up 4 starts so far this year, I’m not even going to worry about the color commentary.  We’ll save that for when it’s more meaningful.

Top 20 Future Risers:






















Top 20 Future Fallers:

The Morning Shave - May 5, 2010

Today’s Spotlight –

It’s easy to dream on the kind of numbers Evan Longoria would put up if he were a .320 or .330 hitter, let alone was able to maintain the .360+ average that he’s had so far this season.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like it’s in the cards for him unless he improves his K-rate.  Longoria will always be a guy who makes a lot of hard contact and a generally streaky hitter, so while his batting average is great right now, it’s not being balanced out by changes in his peripherals.  What is promising is that he’s got 4 steals on the season already (his previous career high was 9 last year).  If Longoria can steal 20 bases, he’s A-Rod without the aging/injury risk and likely a top-5 pick next year.

Other Daily Notes –

·        Mike Aviles went 3-for-5 with a HR last night batting 7th for the Royals.  If he’s playing most days, he’s worth grabbing in AL-only leagues immediately and worth monitoring in deep mixed leagues.
·        Clayton Kershaw got bombed last night giving up 7 runs while only collecting 4 outs.  He usually doesn’t have a problem missing bats, but when he was hit last night, he was hit hard.  Makes you wonder if there may be injury trouble ahead.
·        Jason Heyward went 2-for-2 with a HR and 2 walks against the Nationals.  He’s quietly raised his average back up to .289.  Since April 24th, he’s got 4 HR’s, 8 RBI’s and a .370 AVG – but most importantly, he’s got a 4/6 K/BB ratio in that span (compared to 20/10 up to that point).

Streamers’ Paradise, 5-day Forecast —

May 5, 2010:
1        Brandon Morrow, Toronto (@ CLE)
2        Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati (v NYM)
3        Clayton Richard, San Diego (v COL)
Deep        Freddy Garcia, Chicago (v KC)
Avoid        Brad Penny, St Louis (@ PHI)

May 6, 2010:
1        Matt Harrison, Texas (v KC)
2        Carl Pavano, Minnesota (v BAL)
3        Scott Olsen, Washington (v ATL)
Deep        Dave Bush, Milwaukee (@ LAD)
Avoid        Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston (v LAA)

May 7, 2010:
1        Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit (@ CLE)
2        Chris Volstad, Florida (@ WAS)
3        Kevin Millwood, Baltimore (@ MIN)
Deep        Esmil Rogers, Colorado (@ LAD)
Avoid        Phil Hughes, New York (@ BOS)

May 8, 2010:
1        Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado (@ LAD)
2        Justin Masterson, Cleveland (v DET)
3        Joe Saunders, Los Angeles (@ SEA)
Deep        Todd Wellemeyer, San Francisco (@ NYM)
Avoid        Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta (@ PHI)

May 9, 2010:
1        Max Scherzer, Detroit (@ CLE)
2        Scott Feldman, Texas (v KC)
3        Nick Blackburn, Minnesota (v BAL)
Deep        Jason Vargas, Seattle (v LAA)
Avoid        Cole Hamels, Philadelphia (v ATL)

The Bearded Bandwagon—

Here is a list of bandwagons we are on here at Fantasy Beards.  The descriptions show how strongly we feel about them – ranging from “driving!” (a bandwagon we feel super strong about) to “evacuated!” (a bandwagon we jumped off like it was on fire).  Nothing will get erased from this list over the course of the season, so any embarrassing excursions will be there for you to laugh at.

The Good:
James Shields WILL finish in the top-3 of AL Cy Young voting (driving!)
David Wright WILL hit 30+ HR’s (firmly on)
Daisuke Matsuzaka WILL win 10+ games (on)
Johnny Cueto WILL end the season as a top-40 pitcher (on, but getting antsy..)

The Bad:
Matt Capps WON’T get 25 saves this season (firmly on)
Carlos Santana WON’T hit double digit HRs this year (firmly on)
Brian Roberts WON’T play in more than 50 games this season (on)

The Ugly:
Javier Vazquez WON’T get his ERA below 5.00 at any point this season (on)

Look Out Below! –

A constantly revolving list of the top 10 most vulnerable closers in baseball, along with the guy we’d handcuff him with:

1) *Alfredo Simon, Baltimore (Koji Uehara)
2) *Franklin Morales, Colorado (Manny Corpas)
3) *Chris Perez, Cleveland (Tony Sipp)
4) Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney)
5) Neftali Feliz (Frank Francisco)
6) Kevin Gregg (Jason Frasor)
7) Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)
8) Octavio Dotel (Evan Meek)
9) Brad Lidge (Danys Baez)
10) Matt Lindstrom (Brandon Lyon)

*Currently an injury replacement

Today’s Matchup to Watch –

Rick Porcello vs. the Minnesota Twins offense  

The Twins have played well and Porcello has struggled badly, but the law of averages says that Porcello will turn around his horrific BABIPa (.415 this season versus .287 from last season).  That is, unless he’s showing some side effects from his 45-inning jump from 2008 to 2009, according to the Verducci Effect (after the SI writer who first detailed this).  The Verducci Effect surmises that anything larger than a 30 inning jump from year-to-year for a pitcher 25 years old or under will put that pitcher at serious risk for injury.  Porcello is not even 22 years old, so only time will tell on this one.